Method for estimating the probability of geological success: A case study of the HRA-E prospect, Block 106, northern Song Hong basin
Abstract
Petroleum exploration and drilling represent fields fraught with inherent uncertainties, consequently, geological assessment is significantly important for precisely selecting prospects and well locations. The geological evaluation of prospective formations predominantly relies on 5 elements of the petroleum system including source, reservoir, seal, trap, and migration.
This article introduces globally applied geological assessment methods, and proposes an applicable methodology for exploration targets across regions with varying levels of available data. Applying this method of evaluating risk criteria for pre-Cenozoic carbonate objects of HRA-E prospect in Block 106 shows that the evaluation results align with the actual probability of success in drilling exploration activities in the region and could be extended to other projects within the Petrovietnam Exploration Production Corporation (PVEP).
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